Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh said his government is ready to battle the al Houthi rebels in the north part of the country for years if need be. The UN estimates that intensified combat, which began around Sa’ada city in July, has forced 55,000 highland villagers from their homes, adding to the 95,000 displaced from previous bouts of fighting in the five-year-old conflict. Thousands have been killed and displaced since the insurgency began in 2004. Various attempts at brokering a ceasefire have failed.
The UK-based international aid agency Oxfam warned last Tuesday of a humanitarian crisis as a result of the escalation of the war.
In a separte development, but one that adds pressure on the government, clashes have erupted in several locations in the south of the country.
16 to 30 September 2009
Analysis and forecast: increasing risk
The longer the Sa’ada conflict continues, the less likely will Yemen be able to survive as a united state. It has become widely acknowledged that Yemen has been turned into a battleground for the Saudis, Iranians and Al Qaeda. With time, this is becoming more so. It is therefore becoming more difficult to return to normality once the crisis have ended.
The speech by the Yemeni president has also failed to acknowledge the problems in the south. He said that Yemen faced three challenges, naming them as the Houthis, Al Qaeda and the economy. However, the southern problem remains a very serious challenge and in fact, is the most likely part to break-away should the central government be weakened further by the other fronts. The current assessment is therefore that the central government does not yet acknowledged the enormity of the challenges it faces, therefore making it less likely that a peaceful settlement will end the conflict.
There is little reliable data on the make-up of the Yemen population, but the following is a Political Capital estimate:
