Political parties are busy positioning themselves before the upcoming presidential elections. Vice president of the Liberal Democratic Party (PD-L) stated that the Social Democratic Party (PSD) should be kicked out of the government, because the way they behave is more suitable for an opposition party. The PSD also stepped up its attacks on the PD-L supported President Băsescu after allegations that his brother is involved with Bakri Imad Abdul Reda, a man with alleged ties to terrorists. President Băsescu countered with denouncing all the politicians who – for political reasons – boost salaries before elections, because the high inflation will surely eat away the gains. A counterattack was launched shortly after, in which the PSD accused the President of pressuring the Interior Minister to “twist the results of the election” and to favour PD-L led cities when awarding funds. Not much after the minister indeed made statements implying an election fraud, after which PM Emil Boc immediately signaled his intention to sack him which he followed through. The PSD expressed its continuing support without delay, sparking the most serious coalition crisis so far, that, in the end, resulted in the break-up of the big coalition.
Analysis and forecast: increasing risk
The political bickering is seriously hurting the country’s image abroad, which is not wise at a time when its dependence on foreign capital is all the more pronounced. However, the domestic repercussions are not to be understated either. In a recent poll, less than half of the electorate said that they intend to cast votes in the upcoming presidential election on 22nd of November. The conflicts have been gaining strength steadily in the last few months. The austerity measures, however ineffective should they turn out to be, put a serious dent in the image of the governing parties, and – especially the social democrats – have tried to regain that with proposing populist measures only to backpedal when faced with the reactions of credible economic players. The distrust is evident in party chief and presidential hopeful Mircea Geoană’s poll numbers, which have been constantly lagging behind Băsescu’s by a wide margin. Lately Geoană has become even more aggressive hoping that this will enable to him to catch up, but he probably went too far. His uncompromising stance is simply not compatible with the role of being a chief of a coalition party, and it caused the break-up of the big coalition in the middle of the crisis, which does not reflect the image of a sober-minded, wise president. While Geoană assured that they will support measures needed to fulfill the IMF requirements, the events are helping the chances of the incumbent president. In addition, Băsescu has been leading an exemplary campaign this year with just the right mix of populism and sober realism. He managed to gain the upper hand in most of the conflicts and successfully projected an image that stood in stark contrast to that of Geoană, which is reflected readily in the poll numbers. Băsescu’s figures have been steadily above 30% while Geona trailed him as a distant second, and his lead could be further cemented due to his newest initiative. Tapping into the anti-political mood of the population he proposed a referendum to be held together with the presidential elections on downsizing the country's parliament to a maximum 300 lawmakers from the current 471 and on the switch to a single-chamber parliament. The President also made the long-awaited announcement on 3 October that he will indeed run for a second term in November.
Source: Center for Urban and Regional Sociology and Compania de Cercetare Sociologica si Branding
