riskandforecast

public opinion

Flash Report  07/02/12

Not your typical angry young men

Jobbik Facebook fans young, educated, eurosceptic, pessimistic & prejudiced....
In-depth analysis  01/02/12

Populism in Europe: Hungary

Demos and the Political Capital Institute released the first ever study of the Jobbik party’s Facebook fans, based on over 2,000 survey responses....
 
Flash Report  18/01/12

The current state of the loan agreement and the options of the government

By now Viktor Orbán has manoeuvred himself into a corner where his options are limited to bad and even worse political choices....
Flash Report  02/01/12

Hungary: against the wall

The foundering of loan negotiations would definitely leave the Hungarian economy in a catastrophic state with potentially serious domestic political consequences....
 
Hungary  07/06/11

Diminishing majority

The Hungarian government celebrated its first year in office on May 29. In terms of popularity, their first six months was a success story. Fidesz stabilized its voter base at over 40 percent of all a...
Press release  22/12/10

Anti-Semitism and Anti-Semitic Conspiracy Theories

A Joint Conference by Political Capital Institute and Central European University....
 
Chart of the Week  25/11/10

Municipal Elections Strengthen Poland’s Governing PO Party

Poland held the first round of municipal elections on November 21. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform (PO) gained a stronger mandate to rule, while the strongest opposition party, former Prim...
Flash Report  16/11/10

Far right veering off the rails

Jobbik’s leaders are not skirmishing with each other in public. But beneath this facade of unity, internal rifts are threatening to tear the party asunder....
 
Bahrain  18/10/10

Tense political and ethnic climate precedes parliamentary elections

Bahrain is bracing itself as tensions rise ahead of next week’s parliamentary elections....
Bulgaria  16/09/10

Anti-Immigrant Prejudice in Central and Eastern Europe

Political Capital's analysis on attitudes toward migrants in Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Poland....
 
Czech Republic  06/09/10

Change of Government – A New Hope?

Among the Visegrad nations (Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia), Hungarians have the dimmest view of their country’s economic situation and their personal finances....
Slovakia  27/08/10

Slovakia’s PM Holds Her Ground

New Slovak Prime Minister Iveta Radičová met August 25 with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin to discuss – among other things – the Slovak Parliament’s decision to withhold its €800 million co...
 
Slovakia  11/08/10

Smer: stronger in opposition

In most countries, election winners enjoy a protracted period of public support immediately after taking office (the “post-election bandwagon effect”). Slovakia’s new government has had no such luck....
Hungary  12/07/10

Are homophobic people more right-wing than toleranted ones?

The graph below illustrates the difference in the left-right political orientations of people who are homophobic or toleranted in 23 European countries. A higher score means people who dislike homosex...
 
Chart of the Week  21/06/10

Presidential Election in Poland

Acting President Bronisław Komorowski of the governing Civic Platform (PO) party won the first round of Poland's presidential election on June 20, but failed to win the 50% required to avoid a runoff....
Political Forecast  19/05/10

Bulgaria Derailed from the Fast Track to the Eurozone

The Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) government continues to be stable despite persistent economic troubles and a drop in popularity....
 
Qatar  19/04/10

Qatar makes entry of EU citizens subject to complicated visa rules

Qatar has announced that it will no longer offer visa-free travel to EU and Western citizens....
Hungary  15/04/10

Hungarian Elections: A Success for Non-parliamentary Parties

Four parties reached the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation in the first round of Hungary’s general election on April 11. Two of them had never made it into Parliament before: The far-right...
 
Hungary  11/04/10

Jobbik Scores Big in Hungary’s Parliamentary Election: Now what?

The ultra right-wing Jobbik party’s successful performance in the first round of Hungary’s general election may come as a shock, but it is no surprise....
Czech Republic  06/04/10

Czech politicians run a dirty election campaign that shies away from issues

The Czech Republic’s election race is wide open. A number of new political formations may enter Parliament or even join the government....
 
 

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In the media

Ungheria, ali tarpate per la Malev (February 4)

A Revised Portrait of Hungary's Right-Wing Extremists (February 3)

Verden er blevet mere udemokratisk (January 24)

Hungary PM backs down (January 20)

Circunscripciones a medida (January 19)

Uma lei eleitoral desenhada à medida do Fidesz (January 16)



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