riskandforecast

democracy

In-depth analysis  20/04/12

Halfway into the Hungarian electoral reform

Electoral law already passed, law on procedure is still uncertain - Political Capital Institute analyses the reform process of the Hungarian electoral system and its anticipated consequences....
Hungary  18/01/12

The current state of the loan agreement and the options of the government

By now Viktor Orbán has manoeuvred himself into a corner where his options are limited to bad and even worse political choices....
 
Flash Report  02/01/12

Hungary: against the wall

The foundering of loan negotiations would definitely leave the Hungarian economy in a catastrophic state with potentially serious domestic political consequences....
Risk Watch  17/06/11

Saleh goes to Saudi Arabia for treatment as Yemen falls into further chaos

With the situation still unresolved, the return to normality will likely take longer as Yemen is gripped by mass protests, and parts of the country falling into the hands of militants....
 
Risk Watch  17/06/11

Protests continue in Syria as thousands of refugees flee to Turkey

Continuing and escalating mass protests in Syria have led to thousands of refugees leaving to Turkey....
Risk Watch  17/05/11

Bahrain to lift state of emergency from June 1

The King’s decision to lift the state of emergency days before it is due to expire and its welcome by the Shiite opposition indicates that both sides are ready to start reconciliation efforts....
 
Chart of the Week  06/05/11

Freedom of the Press in the EU10 countries

Freedom House published the 2011 edition of its Freedom of the Press Index on May 2. The change from the previous report equals or less than 1 in all EU10 countries, the only exception is Hungary....
Risk Watch  02/05/11

Syria lifts emergency rule but riots intensify

Syria has lifted the emergency law but the riots intensified calling for regime change. With an increase in US sanctions, the Syrian regime faces greater difficulties....
 
Risk Watch  02/05/11

Bahrain passes death sentence against rioters

Bahrain sentenced four Shiites to death for their role in the riots last month. Although the ruling is subject to appeal, this is an indication that the unrest will not be resolved imminently....
Saudi Arabia  02/05/11

Saudi government impose media restrictions

Saudi Arabia passed harsh media laws that are seen as a direct threat to the country’s reformist journalists....
 
Risk Watch  02/05/11

GCC fails in brokering Yemen deal as AQAP continues its assault against army

The GCC has so far failed in securing a deal to end the standoff in Yemen. AQAP meanwhile have intensified their attacks against the security forces, particularly in the south....
Hungary  22/04/11

Regime Consolidation: A Missed Opportunity

The new constitution in Hungary is not anti-democratic; however, it does harm to the conditions of Hungary’s medium- and long-term political stability....
 
Risk Watch  18/04/11

Bahrain delays ban of main Shiite parties

The situation in Bahrain is far from being resolved with government threats to ban mainstream Shiite party Al Wefaq. ...
Risk Watch  18/04/11

Mass protests across Syria as new government fails to appease protesters

Syria appears to head towards further unrest as the new government has failed to appease protesters....
 
Risk Watch  18/04/11

GCC plan for Yemen solution rejected by protesters

The situation in Yemen is heading towards further complications as signs of splits appear within the opposition camp....
Risk Watch  16/03/11

Bahrain declares martial law

The King of Bahrain has declared a three-month state of emergency, in which martial law is imposed. The declaration came after calls by Sunni parliamentarians to declare a state of emergency....
 
Risk Watch  16/03/11

Bidoons clash with police as tensions rise in Kuwait

Kuwait’s Bidoons have staged protests demanding naturalization and other rights....
Risk Watch  01/03/11

Key tribe abandons Yemeni regime as unrest intensifies

Leading tribes have abandoned the Yemeni regime and joined the protesters. Whilst the position of the army is still unclear, this increases the likelihood of a speedier regime change....
 
Risk Watch  01/03/11

Bahrain’s king shuffles cabinet

The Bahraini government appears not to have satisfied the demands of the anti-regime protesters, as banned opposition leader returns from exile....
In-depth analysis  22/01/11

The New Hungarian Media Law: Evaluation and Summary

The analysis examines the Media Law, explores the arguments for and against the legislation, and summarizes the legislation's most important points....
 
 

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In the media

Hungarian PM Not Concerned About ‘Getting Sacked’ (May 10)

Jung, gebildet, rechtsradikal (May 2)

Hungary elects PM's close ally Ader as president (May 2)

Un fidèle d'Orban à la présidence hongroise (May 2)

Ader Tapped for Hungarian President as Orban Picks Ally (April 16)

Hungary PM proposes close ally as new president (April 16)

Hungary government loyalist Ader set to be new president (April 13)



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