riskandforecast

Political Forecast

Hungary  08/11/10

Half-success: Budget deficit aims 3%

Key Political Trends: Half-success: Budget deficit aims 3%; Restricting the jurisdiction of the Constitutional Court; Ferenc Gyurcsány’s two-front battle against Fidesz and the MSZP leadership...
Hungary  03/09/10

Hungary Faces Increasing Pressure from Abroad

Fidesz’s changes to the election law have made it hard for politicians to run for Budapest mayor. ...
 
Hungary  20/07/10

IMF Casts Doubt on Hungary’s Fiscal Strategy

Although Hungary currently has no urgent need for outside financing, the IMF loan served as a safety net should the country find itself in a tight spot....
Hungary  01/06/10

Conflicts with the Central Bank and the northern neighbour

As the new government will have little room for boosting the budget deficit, its economic policy will not represent a sharp turn from that pursued by the Bajnai-cabinet....
 
Bulgaria  19/05/10

Bulgaria Derailed from the Fast Track to the Eurozone

The Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) government continues to be stable despite persistent economic troubles and a drop in popularity....
Political Forecast  26/03/10

Fidesz treads lightly on budget deficit in election manifesto

As Fidesz gets closer to governance, its politicians are becoming more and more cautious when talking about their program. Fidesz’s policy wonks are putting less emphasis on stimulating the economy....
 
Bulgaria  09/03/10

Fight against organized crime boosts government's strength in Bulgaria

Public attention is focused on the special operations against organized crime. These operations will allow GERB to establish a normal chain of command in the security services....
Political Forecast  09/03/10

Struggle for power and influence within the Slovenian government

Despite the eternal bickering, the situation in the coalition and parliament is essentially stable. An imminent political crisis, government reshuffle or leadership change is not on the horizon....
 
Political Forecast  02/03/10

Of Programs and Popularity

Fidesz continues to dominate the polls, regardless of accusations that it does not have a program. The Socialists are pushing a more populist tone in order to mobilize their traditional voters....
Montenegro  01/03/10

DPS strengthens its domination of the Montenegrin political scene

Neither the hardships of the global economic crisis nor a scathing IMF report on Montenegro’s fiscal performance has managed to loosen the governing Democratic Party of Socialists’s grip on power....
 
Political Forecast  16/02/10

Montenegro trades barbs with IMF in loan negotiations

Montenegro’s loan negotiations with the International Monetary Fund hang in the balance after the IMF pinpointed several shortcomings in Montenegrin finances....
Political Forecast  15/02/10

Support for the Macedonian Government Remains High

The latest polls show the greatest number of Macedonians supporting the governing coalition, but some of them indicate the main opposition party is closing the gap....
 
Slovenia  03/02/10

2010: Crucial Year for the Coalition in Slovenia

Slovenian government leaders will face an uphill climb this year in implementing their economic program after spending 2009 clumsily trying to find their feet amid the global recession....
Hungary  03/02/10

Socialist woes in Hungary

The Socialists and the governments suffered numerous setbacks. The property tax has been abolished, more and more heads roll at BKV and the party's poll numbers failed to improve....
 
Kosovo  28/01/10

US Trip of Montenegrin PM is Seen as a Success

While the decision to establish diplomatic relations with Kosovo has heightened tensions with Serbia in the short term, the move scored political points in both Washington and Brussels....
Bulgaria  22/01/10

The first international failure of the Bulgarian government

The government of GERB experienced its first international failure with the poor performance and the followed withdrawal of the initial Bulgarian EU Commissioner-Designate Rumiana Jeleva....
 
Political Forecast  20/01/10

E.U. Beckons, Economy Bleakens in Montenegro

Montenegro in 2009 saw positive developments in its bid to EU-accession. However, the economic outlook hasn't improved for 2010, which forecasts numerous conflicts in the new year....
Hungary  19/01/10

The election campaign is heating up in Hungary

The president is expected to announce the dates of the 2010 general election in late January, with the first round likely to fall on April 11 and the second on April 25....
 
Political Forecast  21/12/09

Hungarian Parties Gearing Up for Campaign

Most Hungarian parties have finished their preparations for the election campaign, and the political debate next year will be dominated by the quest for votes....
Political Forecast  21/12/09

Bulgarian Opposition Still No Threat to the Government

Apart from minor conflicts GERB remains stable, while opposition parties continue to feud among themselves....
 
 

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