riskandforecast

Fiscal Policy

Croatia  27/08/09

Slovenian-Croatian relations: a new beginning in the old story

The results of the first meeting of the Slovenian and the newly appointed Croatian PMs exceeded the preliminary expectations. It demonstrated, that the two politicians can find the common language....
Bulgaria  27/08/09

The New Bulgarian Government Prepares Cut Back

The new CEDB-led government still enjoys the confidence of 72% of the citizens, but the freshly announced cut backs to curb the budget deficit could erode that support fast....
 
Hungary  13/08/09

Roma Murders in Kisléta Dominate Political Discourse in Hungary

The latest attack against a Roma family in Kislétamoved the Roma issue and public security back to the agenda. Meanwhile, conflicts are expected within the MSZP over the strict 2010 budget....
Romania  04/08/09

IMF Agreement Projects Austerity Measures in Romania

According to the agreement between Romania and the IMF, the budget deficit could rise to 7.3% instead of 4.6% as originally expected with the government facing increasing difficulties in paying public...
 
Poland  03/08/09

Most Successful Crisis-manager In the Region?

Donald Tusk’s cabinet in Poland is the most stable coalition in the region at the moment, which, in part, can be explained by the relatively slight effect of the crisis on the Polish economy. Donald T...
Poland  29/07/09

Disagreements between Tusk and Kaczyński hinder budget-controlling efforts

The rising Polish budget deficit pits the PM and the President against each other. Disagreements and political fights endanger the curbing of the deficit....
 
Bulgaria  09/07/09

Bulgaria elects a center-right ruling party with 40% Majority

The next government will be dominated by center-right CEDB, that won 116 seats in the 240-member Parliament on the 5th July elections. It will have a tough time, as the deficit is expected to grow....
Czech Republic  09/07/09

Czech budget deficit to approach the Polish

Budget deficit to grow due to flood damage, and continuous debate on the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty....
 
Macedonia (FYROM)  18/06/09

Budget and ethnic woes in Macedonia (FYROM)

The revision of budget projections for 2009 is an important step to guarantee the stability of the public finances and the confidence of foreign investors, however steeper cuts will be needed....
Bahrain  16/06/09

Agreement Signed on Monetary Union between GCC Countries

Four GCC states signed a pact on 7 June creating a monetary union. It comes as a confidence-building measure after the shock decision by the UAE to not be part of it....
 
Oman  16/06/09

Simplification of the Tax System in Oman

Oman has simplified its corporate tax laws to woe foreign investors, offering a fixed 12 percent tax on all corporations working in Oman....
Poland  26/05/09

Record high Polish deficit in April

The Polish authorities remain committed to the 2009 state budget, primarily by cutting expenditure at the state level, but lacking the will to act firmly, a higher budget deficit is expected....
 
Kuwait  10/04/09

Emir Dissolved the Parliament in Kuwait

The Emir dissolved the parliament and accepted the resignation of the government. Polls indicate a similar parliament. Plans to pass the economic stimulus package as an emergency measure emerge....
Bulgaria  17/02/09

The loser takes it all? - Crisis management techniques in new EU member states

Countries of the region had to settle in for a long and deep economic slowdown. The political fallout may be the most severe in where loosening the budget is not an option....
 
Bulgaria  04/11/08

Bulgarian Opposition Stays Divided

The so called “EPP format” consisting of CEDB, UDF and DSB appears to be an ineffective form of oppositional cooperation....
Hungary  03/11/08

The political consequences of the financial crisis in Hungary

The financial rescue package has restored the confidence in the Hungarian economy and currency in the short run. However, there is a risk that the crisis will amplify the existing deficiencies....
 
Bulgaria  16/07/08

Upcoming Vote of no Confidence in Bulgaria not Expected to Succeed

The expected vote of no confidence most certainly will not pass. The majority remains stable and the opposition does not have the needed 121 MPs to depose the government....
Bulgaria  02/07/08

Bulgarian Socialists Preparing for Congress

The short-term perspective for the Cabinet remains stable. The unity of the parties of the Government will remain firm. Possible destabilizing factor could be the the forthcoming congress of the BSP....
 
 

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In the media

Hungarian PM Not Concerned About ‘Getting Sacked’ (May 10)

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Un fidèle d'Orban à la présidence hongroise (May 2)

Ader Tapped for Hungarian President as Orban Picks Ally (April 16)

Hungary PM proposes close ally as new president (April 16)

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