riskandforecast

EU

Political Forecast  03/06/09

Conflicts and Declining Popularity due to Austerity Measures in Serbia

The government's popularity dipped due to austerity measures required by the IMF stand-by agreement. Also, conflicts arose between the coalition parties due plans to cut the number of ministries....
Croatia  03/06/09

Governing Parties Lag Behind the Opposition before the EP Elections

The governing parties are behind the opposition in the polls before the EP elections. The coalition is expected to pick up 4, the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) 2 seats and New Slovenia (NSi)1 seat....
 
Czech Republic  26/05/09

Czech interim government: the end of the political crisis?

The interim government’s inauguration provisionally ended the political crisis, but the debate concerning the Treaty of Lisbon is still going on....
Macedonia (FYROM)  26/05/09

Macedonia (FYROM) anticipates visa liberalization as of 1 Jan 2010

Starting EU accession talks, visa regime liberalization and decentralization in IPA funds management are the three priorities of Macedonia....
 
Political Forecast  19/05/09

Positive Developments in Montenegro-EU relations

The competent EU bodies (COREPER, GAERC) paved the way for the Montenegrin membership application, and a comprehensive questionnaire will soon be sent to the Montenegrin authorities....
Hungary  15/05/09

Huge Opposition Victory in Pécs, Hungary

MSZP suffered a staggering defeat in the mayoral elections of Pécs, and that can be seen as an indicator to the EP elections....
 
Political Forecast  29/04/09

New Hungarian PM, New Program

The new Bajnai government's program was well received, but it can alter public opinion for the worse before the European parliamentary elections....
Macedonia (FYROM)  16/04/09

Macedonian Elections stablilize the Country

Results of presidential and municipal elections have stabilized the position of the government, giving it unprecedented power....
 
Albania  08/04/09

Montenegrin Elections Result in a clear win for DPS

The Montenegrin PM, Milo Djukanović-lead DPS cemented its two-decade old rule, and the opposition fragmented further. As a result the new government will have free hand in policy making....
Political Forecast  07/04/09

Gordon Bajnai to Become the New Hungarian PM

Last week the chances for an early election considerably diminished, its not in anyone's interest. Gordon Bajnai will most certainly become the new PM....
 
Kosovo  16/03/09

Internal Feuds in Serbia's Democratic Party (DS)

Although the Democratic Party is stricken by internal feud on several issues, it is still the most popular party, while the opposition parties are locked in battles....
Macedonia (FYROM)  13/03/09

Macedonia Prepares for Local and Presidential Elections

The governing coalition is stable save for a few internal disputes. The conformity to international standards of the upcoming elections will be an benchmark of the country's development....
 
Croatia  09/03/09

No Threats to Government Stability in Slovenia for the Moment

Slovenia continues to remain an economically and politically stable country, but the border dispute with Croatia puts burden on the government...
Hungary  05/03/09

Weakening Hungarian PM

Numerous setbacks weakened the PM before the MSZP congress. Fidesz's strategy seems unchanged, regardless of the crisis and the rising far-right....
 
Bulgaria  17/02/09

The loser takes it all? - Crisis management techniques in new EU member states

Countries of the region had to settle in for a long and deep economic slowdown. The political fallout may be the most severe in where loosening the budget is not an option....
Political Forecast  06/02/09

Hungarian Government Announced Tax Package to Regain the Offensive

At Parliament’s extraordinary session the PM announced a larger-than-expected HUF 1000 bln tax reform package, well received by economic players. Ferenc Gyurcsány wants to regain the offensive. ...
 
Political Forecast  13/01/09

Stable PM, Rising Risks in Hungary

Thanks to the passage of the budget and his management of the crisis, Ferenc Gyurcsány’s position has stabilized. However, he faces an active Fidesz and a worsening economy....
Political Forecast  12/12/08

The Crisis Stays in the Center of Hungarian Politics

The economic crisis has the government with little room for maneuvering until the 2010 election. Fidesz seems to have abandoned hopes for an early election and plans on taking over in 2010....
 
Hungary  25/11/08

Slovak-Hungarian Conflict in the Financial Crisis

The emerged conflict between Hungary and Slovakia is a direct consequence of the financial crisis and could linger for some time, creating both domestic and foreign policy problems for the PM....
Bulgaria  04/11/08

Bulgarian Opposition Stays Divided

The so called “EPP format” consisting of CEDB, UDF and DSB appears to be an ineffective form of oppositional cooperation....
 
 

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