riskandforecast
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Flash Report

02/01/12
 

Hungary: against the wall

The foundering of loan negotiations would definitely leave the Hungarian economy in a catastrophic state with potentially serious domestic political consequences.

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Flash Report

28/11/11
 

IMF-deal: the stress-test of the Orbán-government

Moody’s downgrade of Hungary’s sovereign debt to ‘junk’ status is a clear sign that the government’s eccentric and “unorthodox” economic policy has proved unsuccessful.

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Flash Report

22/11/11
 

MOL in Croatia – Lull before the storm

The Croatian government failed to put legal controls on the Hungarian Company’s business share, which means that it will leave the resolution of the problem to the incoming administration.

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In-depth analysis

26/10/11
 

New election system: nothing is carved in stone

As it is difficult to foresee shifts in party system in coming years, governing party strategists find it hard to decide which electoral system would offer benefits to the alliance led by Fidesz.

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In-depth analysis

08/09/11
 

Radical right in SEE seeks political gains by attacking gay pride parades

In this study we analyze the position of the far right in respect to the gay rights movement with a special focus on Balkan countries aspiring to enter the European Union.

Flash Report

18/01/12
 

The current state of the loan agreement and the options of the government

By now Viktor Orbán has manoeuvred himself into a corner where his options are limited to bad and even worse political choices.

In-depth analysis

13/05/11
 

Multiculturalism in the Cross-Hairs

The debate on the social integration of the Muslim minority totalling 5 to 8 per cent of the population has risen to the highest political level in the large receiving countries in Europe.

 

United Arab Emirates

03/06/11
 

Bank deposits increase but banks reluctant to lend

Figures released by the UAE Central Bank indicate that bank deposits have reached their highest level in almost two years.

Qatar

03/06/11
 

Qatar’s FIFA chief candidate withdraws as Qatar accused of corruption

Allegations of bribery and corruption against Qatar in its attempt to win the right to host the 2022 World Cup will likely have reputation as well as economic consequences.

Flash Report

23/05/11
 

Government in pensions trap

Almost three million people receive a pension or pension-type allowance. Of those almost one and a half million are below retirement age and claim an allowance based on various legal categories.

Kuwait

03/06/11
 

Government and parliament clash as cracks appear in government

Cracks have appeared within the pro-government supporters in the Kuwaiti parliament, possibly indicating increasing tensions within the ruling family.

Flash Report

16/05/11
 

Jobbik needs Jews to run the world

This is an edited & updated version of a talk given at the “Conspiracy Theories and Anti-Semitism” conference organised by Political Capital & held recently at the Central European University.

Bahrain

17/05/11
 

Bahrain to lift state of emergency from June 1

The King’s decision to lift the state of emergency days before it is due to expire and its welcome by the Shiite opposition indicates that both sides are ready to start reconciliation efforts.

Saudi Arabia

17/05/11
 

Bin Laden’s killed in US raid in Pakistan

The killing of Saudi terrorist Osama Bin Laden will likely have implications for Yemen and the GCC, including Saudi Arabia.

GCC

17/05/11
 

GCC welcomes Jordan and invites Morocco to join group

The GCC’s invitation to Jordan to join the GCC is a positive step for both the GCC and Jordan.

Flash Report

20/07/11
 

New election system in Hungary: under construction

At its July 9 meeting the Fidesz presidency discussed options for a new election system,although no decision has been reached on key issues.

Risk Watch

03/06/11
 

Civil war erupts in Yemen as GCC initiative fails

Yemen has erupted into civil war with various parts of the country falling under the control of opposition groups, including AQAP.

In-depth analysis

04/05/11
 

The second season of patrolling in Hungary

Background of recent events in Gyöngyöspata – an In-Depth analysis by Political Capital.

Saudi Arabia

03/06/11
 

Saudi Arabia announces stricter laws for employing expatriates

Saudi Arabia has passed new labour laws aimed at increasing local employment and restricting expatriate employment.

Qatar

17/05/11
 

Qatar under regional pressure as it pulls out of Yemen role

The regional role of Qatar is under immense pressure.

Kuwait

17/05/11
 

New Kuwaiti government sworn in and grilling requests submitted

The new Kuwaiti government has been sworn in, immediately to face grilling requests from the opposition.

Flash Report

08/05/11
 

The Valence casino case: government’s gamble

Given the political back-story, it should come as no surprise that the Chief Public Prosecution Service has requested that parliament lift former prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsány’s immunity.

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In the media

Hungary PM backs down (January 20)

Circunscripciones a medida (January 19)

Uma lei eleitoral desenhada à medida do Fidesz (January 16)

Die Politik der Regierung Orban ist irrational (January 16)

Rząd Viktora Orbana chce dostać kredyty, nie tracąc twarzy (January 14-15)

Bloodied by Brussels, Hungary courts IMF for aid (January 11)



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